Tuesday, April 08, 2025

My personal take on "AI 2027" predictions



The Zvi, an AI-focussed newsletter that drops into my RSS regularly, is currently busy discussing the "AI 2027" report that claims that in 2027 AI will be super-intelligent and maybe able to do both security and software development work.

This, to me, sounds like the perfect misunderstanding. And I foresee dark clouds on our horizon. Why? I don't believe AI will be "stealing" any jobs, and believe that it can is harmful for 3 groups:

Imagine that you are a kid who's considering what to study. Would you go into a 4/5 year education in software development? Or would you invest similar time in a Security study? 

Or, looking at this from another angle: would you, as a manager, dare to propose that your company budget some resources for hiring and training new developers and IT security personnel? 

And thirdly, imagine that you are working on an IT Security or Development team. Now your middle and upper management is reading papers that claim that your job can be automated in the next 24 months or less. Do you think those managers are going to stick their necks out and try to keep you happy? Or try to hire new colleagues, thinking they would soon have to be fired again? 

What I think is going to happen is this:  Kids are no longer choosing to study IT Security or Development. Companies are more hesitant to hire developers or security personal. LLM's will continue to be search-engines-on-steroids, useful but needing human oversight, and not much more else. And people in jobs that will soon™️ be replaces by AI, will be undervalued, easily dismissed and probably made very angry as more managers will dare say things like "Can't ChatGPT do this?" Or "What did Perplexity say about that issue?" and everybody will be more grumpy and less happy. 

I am sorry, but this is what I expect most people will have to endure in the forseable future. In the longer term, we will all get used to using LLMs are valuable addittions to our search or even research options. But, just like the Internet (yes, we wrote it with a capital back then) didn't steal all our jobs, neither will AIs. 

 


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